Along with the updated forecast, separate forecasts for the monthly (July and August) rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four geographical regions of India will also be issued. If the average rainfall is below 90 per cent of LPA, the Monsoon is termed "deficient".
Monsoon is considered as "normal" if the average rainfall is between 96-104 per cent of the LPA. Operational forecasts for the southwest monsoon season rainfall are issued in two stages.
As regards Indian Ocean Dipole phenomenon, which is the other important factor, he said, at present neutral IOD conditions are prevailing and recent forecasts indicate that a weak negative IOD conditions may develop during the middle of the monsoon season and this has been factored into the overall forecast.
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Good news for farm sector, India to get normal monsoon rains in 2018: IMD: The distribution of a positive signal to the farm sector and on the whole economy, the nation's national weather forecaster - India Meteorological Department (IMD) - on the last Monday predicted "normal" monsoon rains can fall in the timer of June-September period.
This forecast comes with a model error of plus or minus 5%. Last year, rainfall was close to normal at 95% of the LPA, while in 2016 rains were recorded at 97% of LPA. The upcoming Kharif season is entirely based on Monsoon rains.
On April 4, private weather forecast agency Skymet Weather had released similar forecast that the four-month long Southwest Monsoon which gives about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, would be normal. This is the third consecutive year when the IMD predicted normal monsoon rains for the country. India had faced deficient rains during monsoon season in 2015 and 2014, making both these years drought years.