Leaked government figures suggest all United Kingdom regions will suffer from Brexit


A no-deal Brexit scenario would result in Scotland suffering a 9% hit to its GDP, according to the UK Government's own leaked analysis.

The new revelation shows that the north east will suffer the most if Britain can't strike a deal with the EU.

Special status for Northern Ireland has been an increasingly heated topic in Brexit negotiations following the emergence of the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) as a supporter of the Conservative government in the aftermath of the United Kingdom hung parliament after June 2017 elections.

According to the report, the best-case scenario is a single market deal, but this would still stall economic growth by 2 percent.

The latest leak of the UK Government's Brexit papers reveals Whitehall's economic assessment of various scenarios broken down by region.

It is the only region of England with a goods trade surplus with the European Union, and it also has the highest per capita European Union funding of any English region.

But the figures have been circulating amongst MPs, prompting SNP's Stephen Gethins to quiz Northern Ireland secretary Karen Bradley over the matter.

He asked her: "The Scottish Government analysis has shown that a "no deal" scenario could cost Scotland up to 8.5% of GDP".

The Prime Minister's official spokesman said she had previously "made the point that what it doesn't model is the deal which she is actually seeking".

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The report, which was leaked amid pressure from Labour and pro-EU Tories, are likely to be seized upon by backers of a "soft" Brexit to protect the economy.

The analysis suggests that London, which voted overwhelmingly to remain in the European Union, will get off most lightly from Brexit, with growth reduced by just 3.5 per cent, even with no deal.

The initial leak of the analysis, to website BuzzFeed, sparked claims from Tory Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg that civil servants were "fiddling the figures" in order to influence Brexit policy.

The leak came as MPs were believed to have been seen the assessments in private sessions in the House of Commons on Wednesday.

Paul Brannen, Labour MEP for the North East of England, said: "This is the type of news we always feared Brexit would bring".

The Government has said the analysis doesn't "consider the outcome we are seeking in the negotiations", and insists that the forecasts are only preliminary. "This staggering British Government leak confirms what many across society have been saying since, and before, the Brexit vote - dragging the north from the European Union has the potential to devastate our local economy", he said.

"Options for achieving that should not have been swept off the negotiating table, including being in a customs union with our largest trading partner".

The Liberal Democrat Brexit spokesman Tom Brake said: "This report confirms that every region and nation will be damaged by Brexit. What we need to do is to find ways that we can actually respect that, and our principles were very clear from the start and are what underpins our demand for special status for the North", Cullinane said. The Conservatives are putting everything on the line because they do not care about the lives and livelihoods of the people of the UK.