No-Deal Brexit Scenario Puts 87000 Jobs in London at Risk


The United Kingdom could lose close to 500,000 jobs by 2030 if it leaves the European Union (EU) without an agreement on the modalities of the withdrawal, according to a study commissioned by London Mayor Sadiq Khan and released on Thursday.

A study commissioned by London Mayor Sadiq Khan shows that nearly half a million jobs are under threat if Britain fails to strike a deal on future relations with the European Union before it leaves the bloc.

Today's analysis models five possible scenarios for leaving the European Union, stating the worst option could be a "lost decade" for the British economy.

The findings are in an analysis of the potential impact of five different Brexit scenarios on London and the whole of Britain, commissioned by the mayor a year ago from leading economic analysts Cambridge Econometrics.

"It says that the impact of crashing out of the single market and the customs union could be "noticeably more severe" in the East of England".

Cambridge Econometrics also forecast that the worst-case scenario would lead to the largest drop in immigration, allowing the government to reach its target of under 100,000 arrivals from 2020 onwards but hitting productivity.

The warnings come in a "worst case scenario" Brexit impact assessment commissioned by London's pro-EU mayor Sadiq Khan.

David Davis
Image David Davis has said the Government has not done impact studies

Mr Khan has repeated his calls for this approach to be rethought, saying: "If the Government continue to mishandle the negotiations we could be heading for a lost decade of lower growth and lower employment".

He added: "The analysis concludes that the harder the Brexit we end up with, the bigger the potential impact on jobs, growth and living standards".

Mr Khan is warning that with just 10 months to go, time is running out.

Khan urged Prime Minister Theresa May to ensure Britain avoids this outcome by negotiating "a deal that enables us to remain in both the single market and the customs union".

Both the London mayor and Cambridge Econometrics admit that this analysis is not a precise forecast of what will happen. A "no deal" hard Brexit is still a very real risk - the worst possible scenario.

"The UK wants a deep and special partnership with the European Union, a partnership that spans a new economic relationship and a new relationship on security", the spokeswoman said.

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