Global crude oil demand to ease on warm climate

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The World Energy Outlook says that China, in an effort to reduce severe air pollution in major cities, will lead in the development and deployment of increasingly efficient solar photovoltaic panels. This latest move comes as investors expect figures to show U.S. oil production has risen.

The forecasts are also underpinned by some major assumptions: The report assumes that governments stick to promises they've made on energy, including pledges by India and China to move away from fossil fuels.

Oil price should continue to rise towards $83 a barrel by the mid-2020s as global oil demand is poised to fall only modestly alongside the expected rise in electric vehicles over the next two decades, the International Energy Agency, or IEA, said on Tuesday.

Crude oil markets are expected to be oversupplied in the current quarter and going into 2018, the IEA said. Asian countries will become the biggest net importers of oil and gas, taking in 70 percent of imports by 2040 as their economies expand at a fast clip.

With the USA eating into Canada's prospective market share, the IEA believes Canada's liquefied natural gas export will likely not come to fruition until the 2030s - a decade longer than expected - even as LNG will usher in a "new global gas order". If the standards stay at today's levels, the USA would remain a net oil importer in 2040.

"Yet this is precisely what is happening as a result of the USA shale revolution - both for oil and for natural gas", the IEA said.

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"Asia's growing gas import requirements are largely met by LNG (by 2040), with exports from the United States accelerating a shift towards a more flexible, liquid global market", the IEA said.

If planned pipeline projects come to fruition, the United States and Canada combined could export more than 700,000 bpd to China by 2040 - a drop in the barrel in the country's 15.5 million bpd demand.

"A remarkable ability to unlock new resources cost-effectively pushes combined United States oil and gas output to a level 50% higher than any other country has ever managed; already a net exporter of gas, the U.S. becomes a net exporter of oil in the late 2020s", the IEA said in its 2017 world energy report.

A more widespread use of electric cars will not be enough to consign oil to the past, said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

After hitting a 10-year low of less than $30 in January, down from a peak of more than $100 in mid-2014, oil prices have recently been hovering around the $55 mark.

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