Oil Struggles on Concerns About Too Much Supply


"OPEC reports global oil demand growth for 2017 is circa 1.27 million bbls per day to average 96.4 million bbls per day", PublicInvest Research said. Demand accelerated in the second quarter, growing to 97.4 million barrels a day - 1.5 million barrels a day faster than in the second quarter of 2016. The EIA estimates that USA crude oil production will average 9.9 MMbpd in 2018.

In the past few months, Libya and Nigeria have seen their combined output increase by more than 700 kb/d.

Crude oil prices reached their lowest year-to-date levels in late June, falling after EIA reported builds in total USA crude oil and petroleum products inventories that were above the five-year average during the two weeks ended June 2 and June 9.

"It's not beneficial for OPEC to deepen their cuts because prices will go up and shale oil producers and others will take OPEC's market share", H E Abdullah bin Hamad Al Attiyah said in interview in Istanbul.

Still, OPEC woes also mean that USA shale is suffering too. OPEC's production rose to 32.6 million barrels a day, the highest level this year, as the group's compliance with its pledged reductions slipped to 78 percent, the lowest rate this year, the IEA said. US crude inventories slid the most since September last week, but the IEA said there's little evidence that total fuel stockpiles in developed countries are shrinking as anticipated.

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Meanwhile BNP Paribas, Morgan Stanley, Barclays and the US Energy information Administration (EIA), have all cut their 2017 and 2018 oil prices estimates. Prices are up 3.7 percent this week.

Moves in crude oil prices impact oil and gas producers such as Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobil (XOM), Sanchez Energy (SN), PDC Energy (PDCE), and Goodrich Petroleum (GDP). They had both traded at losses, about $1 lower than their settlement price, before surging to gains around the traditional start of USA trading hours. "It will be a very hard six months for the oil industry", Fatih Birol, the IEA's executive director, said at a conference in Istanbul.

According to Goldman Sachs, due to increasing cost efficiency from shale drillers in the USA, the crude oil price outlook remained weak.

Oil investors are going through a period of waning confidence with prices recently returning to levels not seen since early November, the International Energy Agency has warned. They are, however, now forced to cut their forecast as the market struggles to find a balance. Production rose 0.60% week-over-week and 10.7% year-over-year.